Driven by both the construction of “Double First-Class” universities and the reform of vocational education, the pathways to higher education for Chinese students are undergoing profound changes. This transformation is not only reshaping the domestic education ecosystem but also subtly reshaping the future landscape of global overseas study. Through the lens of domestic higher education trends, three core logics driving the evolution of overseas study scale can be observed.
I. The Two-Way Adjustment of Demand for Overseas Study Due to Improved Domestic Higher Education Quality
With the rise in international rankings of “Double First-Class” universities and the strengthening of domestic scientific research capabilities, the supply of high-quality higher education resources has significantly expanded. Top universities, represented by Tsinghua University and Peking University, have achieved the strength to compete with world-renowned universities in cutting-edge disciplines such as engineering, computer science, and artificial intelligence. This “top-tier education at home” is gradually weakening the “academic catch-up” demand in the traditional motivation for studying abroad, prompting some outstanding students to choose domestic further education. However, at the same time, the fierce competition for higher education in China—such as the structural imbalance in college entrance examination admission rates and the intensified “involution” in postgraduate entrance examinations—has conversely spurred the emergence of “indirect” overseas study pathways. Especially for students with average grades, studying abroad often helps them avoid the fierce competition in China, creating a two-way adjustment mechanism: “improved domestic college entrance examination quality → decreased willingness to study abroad for some groups” and “intensified college entrance examination competition → some groups turning to studying abroad.”
II. The Profound Reshaping of the Study Abroad Structure by Vocational Education Reform The newly revised Vocational Education Law promotes the implementation of the “Vocational College Entrance Examination” system, constructing a complete vocational education pathway from “secondary vocational school to higher vocational school to undergraduate to postgraduate.” This reform impacts the scale of study abroad in two dimensions: First, the demand for study abroad for skilled personnel has shifted from “academic qualification-oriented” to “ability-enhancing-oriented.” For example, the localization of Germany’s “dual system” vocational education model in China has led more technical and skilled personnel to choose to complete systematic learning in China and then enhance their competitiveness through short-term overseas training and international certification, rather than choosing traditional long-term study abroad. Second, the rise of the “professional master’s degree + professional certification” composite training model has prompted more rational choices regarding study abroad. Students are more inclined to choose study abroad programs closely aligned with domestic industry needs, such as intelligent manufacturing and new energy technologies, forming a new paradigm of “laying a foundation in domestic vocational education and strengthening skills through overseas advanced studies.”
III. The Differentiation Effect of Evolving Educational Concepts on Study Abroad Destinations The educational concepts of Generation Z students are shifting from “studying abroad equals success” to “studying abroad is about empowerment.” This shift has led to a differentiation in study abroad destinations: On the one hand, traditional popular study abroad destinations such as the US, UK, and Australia remain attractive, but the selection logic has changed—students are more focused on program rankings and employment prospects rather than the overall reputation of the institutions; on the other hand, study abroad destinations with high cost-effectiveness and strong cultural adaptability, such as continental Europe and neighboring East Asian countries, are emerging. For example, France’s “engineering schools” and Japan’s “super global university” program are favored for their “high cost-effectiveness + strong employment” characteristics. More noteworthy is the emergence of a “reverse study abroad” phenomenon—with the increase in international cooperation projects in domestic universities, some foreign students are choosing to study in China, forming a new cycle of global talent flow.
Examining this from the historical perspective of domestic education reform, the scale of overseas study is no longer a simple matter of “increase or decrease in the number of students,” but a comprehensive reflection of diversified educational choices, globalized educational quality, and personalized educational needs. The future scale of overseas study will increasingly exhibit characteristics of “stable total volume, optimized structure, and improved quality.” Only by grasping the inherent logic of domestic college entrance examination trends can we accurately predict the evolution of the scale of overseas study and gain an advantage in the global education landscape.
