Recently, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made a statement during a parliamentary inquiry, suggesting that a conflict with Taiwan could constitute a life-or-death crisis requiring the exercise of collective self-defense. This statement quickly triggered a sharp shock in Sino-Japanese relations, exposing not only the right-wing trend in Japanese politics but also directly impacting the political foundation of Sino-Japanese relations, serving as a warning to investors positioning themselves in the Japanese market.
Takaichi’s statement is not an isolated incident but a continuation of Japan’s repeated crossing of red lines on the Taiwan issue in recent years. In a meeting of the House of Representatives Budget Committee, she explicitly linked the Taiwan issue to Japan’s right to collective self-defense, claiming that the use of force could trigger a “life-or-death crisis.” This militarization of China’s internal affairs effectively binds Japan to the “Taiwan independence” agenda. It is noteworthy that this dangerous statement immediately triggered a strong backlash in Japanese politics. Constitutional Democratic Party leader Yoshihiko Noda publicly criticized her “dangerous act of acting alone,” pointing out that previous prime ministers have exercised restraint on such sensitive topics, while Takaichi’s remarks could drag Japan into the risk of war. Former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama went so far as to directly address the core issue on social media, emphasizing that Taiwan is an inseparable part of China and that Japan should never interfere. This internal political division reflects the contradictions and adventurous tendencies in Japan’s China policy.
China reacted swiftly and resolutely. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian posed three direct questions, questioning whether Japan was attempting to challenge China’s core interests or obstruct the cause of reunification, and explicitly stating that the remarks seriously violated the one-China principle and the spirit of the four political documents between China and Japan. Chinese Ambassador to Japan Wu Jianghao further warned in both Chinese and Japanese that promoting the notion that “if Taiwan is in trouble, Japan is in trouble” would lead Japan down a path of no return. This multi-level and multi-channel serious representation highlights China’s firm stance on safeguarding territorial integrity and also foreshadows potential systemic risks to Sino-Japanese relations.
From a professional analysis perspective, the domestic reaction to Takaichi’s remarks in Japan is clearly divided. Right-wing conservative forces are attempting to use this opportunity to expand Japan’s military presence, while rational voices worry that this move will endanger national security. Xiang Haoyu, an expert at the China Institute of International Studies, pointed out that this statement has crossed the political foundation of Sino-Japanese relations and constitutes a “crossing the line.” Its danger lies not only in its provocative nature but also in its potential to overturn the framework of Sino-Japanese relations established over the past forty years. This state of division implies a high degree of uncertainty regarding Japan’s policy direction, making it difficult for investors to accurately predict policy risks.
Against this backdrop, investors need to reassess the investment risks in the Japanese market. If the political foundation of Sino-Japanese relations is eroded, it will directly affect economic and trade cooperation, supply chain stability, and market confidence. Japan’s adventurous actions on the Taiwan issue may trigger countermeasures from China, thereby impacting bilateral trade, the investment environment, and the regional security landscape. For investors seeking stable returns, the Japanese market has become more challenging due to heightened political risks. They need to fully consider geopolitical risk premiums in their investment decisions and avoid asset value fluctuations caused by sudden policy changes. This cautious approach is not short-term risk aversion but rather a long-term prediction based on structural changes in Sino-Japanese relations.
